Redirecting mite spike/immigration numbers to this thread... 

I have only 6 hives.  This can allow for some in-depth investigations.  2 have died, actually with mite numbers not all that different than their mother or half sisters... and I did a mite wash on the dead.  One hive had high mite counts, 20/300, which their mother has survived, but a lot of mite frass.  The other had very little mite frass and 90/300 mite counts - but earlier in the season it was doing well for mite counts being low.  My guess is that the hive with hi mite frass and 20/300 mite counts _exported_ mites to the hive with 90/300 mites.   So there may be a relationship between hives with steady lowish mite counts and hives where mite counts peak, that are in the same apiary...

Back to the model - it is very important to be suspect of a model, and poke for weaknesses.  This helps the model improve.  One aspect of the mite model I plan to use is to look for cases where IF mite immigration is happening, THEN a given pattern of mite counts will be see in KEY months.  So if my mite numbers were well controlled through the summer due to a late winter OAV, and there is no mite immigration, then Sept 15 and Oct 1 will show a doubling in mite wash numbers.  Like from 3 to 5.  Or if I'm not as well controlled for mite counts as I thought, then from 9 to 18.  That's with NO IMMIGRATION according to the model.  Increasing mite immigration doesn't change sept 15 counts as much as you'd think, but it changes the RELATIONSHIP between Sept 15 and Oct 1 mite wash, before the mite counts go sky-high.  So I will be focusing on mite washes during that time, probably doing an OAV and mite drop count too.  Then I have time to tackle the mite levels before my hive is sucked dry.  

In some ways this is way too obvious, right - of course in our model dreamland we will see a jump in mite counts if we program the model to add more due to immigration!  But there is a lag in WHEN those will show up best, based on the bees' life cycle of brood rearing and the mites' life cycle.  And some months mite counts don't change much, like Sept 1 - you can get a mite wash count of 7 with alread-high mites or with the start of a massive mite immigration.  And Aug 1 counts are in the neighborhood of 3-6 with a massive immigration or higher hive mite levels with many settings.  

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