> Or if the naural cavity is subject to moisture problems. Or if by some mechanism the natral Cavity sheds that moisture better.

Seeley found that "only 26% of founder colonies and 82% of established colonies survive winters." That is, 3 out 4 swarms die the first winter and almost 20% of the survivors die each subsequent winter. He estimated colony lifespan at 5 years. Obviously, a good nest site would be repopulated.

PLB

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