Pete, I wasn't referencing you in particular, and its hardly the first time I argued this point. Your knowledge of the spikes in mites in your hives already shows your on top of things. Not the problem. The problem comes for all these who hives succumb, and then look for "the mite bob" explanation.
In this case (mite immigration) is a potential real key to mite control. Completely understanding it may be very important long term. If we blindly follow the "presentation speaker" comments and ignore the math and the research that shows a different picture, then we are lost. That is one of the huge keys behind this group, and really you’re a huge key in that, being able to passionately debate the issue. My apologies if you thought I was referring to you in particular.
The Aug comment was straight from your text, You said in Aug I see my numbers climb. The point is simple if immigration is an big an issue as many claim, we would see it throughout the season. No serious beekeeper would say that mites are only crashing and killing hives in that one month. Mites in hives above the freeze line are dying in winter (from mites) more often than not, and if you take Dennis work seriously, hives are crashing with huge mite loads pretty much all summer. Any hive that overwinters hives will have an early season such as June or July.
IF this immigration issue was really "the smokeing gun" then we would see a cascade. Starting in the south in may, mid-states in July and aug further north. As the weather line moves so would that spike in numbers. Hardly what we see at all.
I very much appreciated your link, as I mentioned it supported my point for the last years, the portion of any mites in crashing hives that successfully emigrates is tiny. (they cited 2.5% if I recall) To Randys point on the math if your close to crashing then that 2.5% can push you over the edge and as I mentioned, if your surrounded by mite loaded hives then that can be a bigger issue. We all know the number of beekeepers that are "surrounded" by crashing hives is small, some areas yes its true. But most of us don't hive hives within a mile of all of these others "horribly crashing mite bombs"
If we look at Seeley's work and use it as a baseline then small distances of 1/2 mile or so isolation are enough to make a huge difference. How many hives of others are within that distance of your apiary?
I have pointed out several times why the math and the concept do not work. This paper makes that point also. Some have been working diligently to figure out the math and see whats going on, others are using the mite bomb concept to guilt people into paying attention, or to blame others. Please debate the point, explain the math, I am all eyes and ears.
To Randy and Dennis point if you do a bad job of sampling your larger apiary, then the potential to miss that mite bomb or two in a yard of 40-100 hives is huge. Caution must be used in doing random samples. But if you only miss one in 40 and even if 20% of the mites make it out. 20% spread over 39 hives is less than .5%. The problem with that is that its usually just one or two hives doing the robbing, so most of the mites will hit them harder. If you’re a typical small beekeeper with one or two hives in the back yard, and no close neighbors, the math fails terribly.
Yes, I do feel as beekeepers we are a huge whiney mess. We blame farmers for pesticides, everyone for lack of forage, the neighbors for mites, Package producers , and commercial queen operators, for bad hives and when all that fails, we switch to the weather. Being involved in several "careers/ groups" over my life, I am astounded at beekeepers. We make heros out of failures, and bash those who are huge successes. Look at Hackenburg vs Mike Gardner. Mikes a HUGE success and badmouthed a lot, the other well not so much. We bash things like Roundup, without even understanding how it works or that it may actually help us. How many times have I heard or read "roundup is killing the Monarch's"?? way to many. Not to debate that point but to show how we as a group spread and gossip things that are not exactly right, and some outright dandy fibs.
There are quite a few positive people out there making it work, but going to meetings is pretty depressing. Listening to certain speakers makes one want to give up and go home.
In this case (mite immigration) is a potential real key to mite control. Completely understanding it may be very important long term. If we blindly follow the "presentation speaker" comments and ignore the math and the research that shows a different picture, then we are lost. That is one of the huge keys behind this group, and really you’re a huge key in that, being able to passionately debate the issue. My apologies if you thought I was referring to you in particular.
Charles
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