Many years ago when I started keeping bees I read in the Hive and the
Honeybee the figure that fewer than 50% of swarms are successful in the
wild.  That seemed to give validity to hiving a swarm thereby giving it a
better chance of survival.

I do not recall there being a real definition of success, but I would
think surviving the first winter would be a good standard.  I also don't
know how that survival statistic was dirived.  It seems to be a difficult
statistic to measure.
 
Has any research been done on the survival rate of swarms that move into
the wild in the present varroa-altered world?  Is there any literature
available on this?  Are there any educated guesses?


On a bit of a tangent to this, I would think an untreated overwintered
colony would be highly likely to die in the upcoming season from the
effects varroa infestation.  However, swarming would cause a break in the
brood cycle slowing the development of the varroa and enhancing the chances
of continued survival for the parent colony.  The swarm would have the same
varroa-related advantage as they establish a new nest.  After a century and
a half of trying to discourage swarming, is the tendency to swarm and swarm
often going to be the saving grace for honeybees in the wild?  Any thoughts
on this logic?

I love hiving natural swarms, they almost alway build strong colonies and
have a nearly perfect survival rate for me that first winter.

Larry Krengel

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