> how do you factor in swarm/supercedure in say wild colonies where you don't know for sure what is going on??

That's what colonies do, which contributes to their longevity, or lifespan. Basically, what I would like to know is 

1) what is the lifespan of a colony in nature

2) what is the lifespan of a properly managed colony (excluding interventions which alter the colony, such as requeening)

3) what is the lifespan of an untreated colony (excluding miticides, etc.)

Of course, these would have to be carefully tracked. On the other hand, many beekeepers do not requeen, but rather, simply replace colonies that have failed. How long do they last? I would guess 3-5 years, although I have seen data from Australia that suggests a much longer natural lifespan (12 years). Untreated colonies are expected to live 3 years, or so. That's been my experience. 

PLB

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