Hobbyists are important because that is one avenue to become a 
commercial bee keeper. (Working for one is the second, inheriting Dad's 
business the third.)
My question is what happens when things get worse, when the winter loss 
is 50% instead of 30%. Which group will stick to it?
In that scenario pollination will be $500 per hive, so the big guys 
still make some money. The small guy may be totally wiped out in some 
years and lucky in others. And he might be just stubborn and support his 
hobby through his day job.

Jorg

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