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Mon, 4 Feb 2013 08:43:01 -0500 |
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Deep Thought |
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> The precautionary principle is not an all or nothing concept. One looks
> at the perceived problem, and then you make a judgment based on previous
> experience etc. as to how severe the perceived problem may be. And
> then put in place appropriate controls and monitoring. If the
> monitoring shows a problem, or indeed lack of one, the controls are
> changed.
That is quite true.
The real problem is that many people cannot weigh probabilities and
consequently find any risk -- no matter how remote or hypothetical -- to
be unacceptable.
It is hard for rational people to comprehend their thinking or
understand how to assuage the fears. In fact, it may not be possible.
Moreover, the public is diverse.
* Some people seek risk and climb ice falls in winter hang-glide and fly
ultralights in spite of the relatively high probability of injury or
death.
* Others are afraid to go outside their homes or fly in commercial jets
(which are prove to be safer than the ride to the airport).
So, the precautionary principle is not the problem. Application of the
problem is the difficulty. No amount of certainty is sufficient for
some, while others embrace even fairly high apparent risks. How can
they all be satisfied with any solution?
It also seems that people with the poorest ability to comprehend and
weigh risk or understand chemistry and biology are those most likely to
parade in the streets (an activity which itself is a risky enterprise)
and tend to get far greater attention to their emotional appeals than
educated and rational discussions which the media and public find boring.
Go figure.
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