Mark Winston addressed this subject without making any absolute statements:
Effects of reproductive timing and colony size on the survival, offspring
colony size and drone production in the honey bee (Apis mellifera)
Lee and Winston
Ecological Entomology
Volume 12, Issue 2, pages 187-195, May 1987
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2311.1987.tb00997.x
For the oft-mentioned special case of Alberta Canada, it was found that
hives headed by 2nd-year queens tended to produce more drones, as many as
double:
Effect of brood production and population size on honey production of
honeybee colonies in Alberta, Canada
T.I. Szabo and L.P. Lefkovitch
Apidologie 20 (1989) 157-163
DOI: 10.1051/apido:19890206
Tom Seeley both provided 20% drone comb to some colonies, and removed it
from others. No reported impact on swarming either way, and if anyone is
going to notice an impact on swarming behavior, it would be Tom.
The effect of drone comb on a honey bee colony's production of honey
Thomas D. Seeley
Apidologie 33 (2002) 75-86
DOI: 10.1051/apido:2001008
Volume 33, Number 1, January-February 2002
But speaking from a colony motivation viewpoint, a newly-established colony
is going to focus on surviving their first winter, so both swarming and
drone production are not likely priorities. While I've never tried to stop
a colony from raising as many drones as it saw fit, I did equip dozens of
new colonies with the "drone brood frames" back when they were first
introduced, and this did not cause any of the requeened splits or colonies
to swarm, of course, even when the drone frame was experimentally permitted
to hatch out rather than being removed and frozen.
There's also the old study (I don't have a citation, sorry) where drones
were eliminated in the hope of increasing harvested honey yields, only to
find that a lack of drones created a listless under-performing colony. Good
news for guys everywhere, as we do serve a purpose beyond reproduction, we
are good for morale, and help to keep the girls productive.
So, raising many more drones does not prompt swarming, and eliminating
drones entirely lowers production significantly.
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