I see a basic inequity in this thread.

On one hand, a great deal of rigor is demanded from Dean when he puts
forward his views on "gut microbes".
	
On the other hand, an unpublished study is offered in rebuttal to Dean.  But
the cited study is neither published, nor were the metrics/results
adequately-summarized.

I think we should be more even-handed, and demand equal rigor from both
sides of any contrasting views.
I tried to ask for more rigor, and I was blown off.

>>> In a recent study (in prep), Dr. Brian Johnson started a large group of
>>> package colonies.... He found no difference in the buildup

>> "no difference in build-up" is a far too gestalt and vague a metric to be
>>  able to detect many serious hits a beehive can take.

> His metrics are actually more refined.  

Not having seen a pre-print, all I can do is ask for a pre-print, or at
least a clue as to what metrics were actually used in the study, if the
metrics were more refined than "build-up".  But if I ask for a pre-print,
and discuss it freely here, I may be hurting chances of publication of the
paper, so I'm bemused. 

But apparently, the "more refined metrics" are considered moot points by a
beekeeper recently described as "especially strident" in making demands for
rigor by a well-respected newspaper:

> To this beekeeper, the rate of colony buildup reflects the final calculus
of all factors involved.

To THIS beekeeper, the rate of "colony buildup" merely reflect the weather
and the queen's performance, far more than any other factors.

As I pointed out with a few examples, bee colonies recover and thrive after
all sorts of severe hits every season, rendering the "calculus" no better
than a Magic 8-Ball.   Further, variation in queen performance can swamp out
any study's controlled variable.  And the rates of queen failure and
supersedure have been unacceptable for the past few years for many
commercially-produced queens, so the problem is not isolated... the queen
failure rates are starting to screw up well-implemented studies.

Speaking of gut microbes... Nosema... why can't anyone kill Nosema ceranae
with any reliability?  I'd be much more willing to give weight to the words
of a person who can explain why.  If we can't first control the Nosema, how
can we claim to understand any of the other microbes?

             ***********************************************
The BEE-L mailing list is powered by L-Soft's renowned
LISTSERV(R) list management software.  For more information, go to:
http://www.lsoft.com/LISTSERV-powered.html