I find the alarm about the 30% loss statistic to be of surprise.
I have always  combined colonies in fall and winter to make almond
pollination strength.  My rule of thumb was to expect to get 2 for every
3--which would be 33% loss.  This rule held long before varroa arrived, or
the neonics were invented.

If I don't combine, even today, most will survive and rebound--I will
discuss this at length in an upcoming article.  What I found was that the
stronger colonies build up so much more quickly in the fall (due to having
a cluster size that allows the queen to lay to her capacity) that it was
more cost-effective for me to focus on strong colonies, and then split them
to make early spring increase to recover my numbers. This works well in
Calif--I don't know about other areas.

-- 
Randy Oliver
Grass Valley, CA
www.ScientificBeekeeping.com

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