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Mon, 11 Feb 2013 07:12:11 -0800 |
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Deep Thought |
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> And then there is the issue of models.
Personally, I can't see how any thinking person can give most models any
credibility unless all the parameters are independent and known, well
and unambiguously understood -- and reliably predictable through time.
In any complex model, the parameters are so interrelated and
incompletely understood that using such models is little better than
using chicken entrails or tea leaves to backstop an argument, but far
more convincing in current times.
IMO, many, if not most, models are merely a smokescreen for the opinions
of those who develop them and the instances where they correspond to any
reality are often due to backfitting and chance.
IMO. the fact that many elaborate models predict the past better than
the future is no co-incidence and IMO relying on models for anything
more than hints is a fool's errand
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