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Date: | Sat, 6 Oct 2012 14:50:06 -0400 |
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>> A key point that is frequently left out of these discussions is: all the
>>...thousands of folks out there who went "no treatment", lost the
bees, and
>> gave up. They don't write, they don't call, they just fall off the map.
> Implied above is the idea that all of these thousands of beekeepers lost
> their bees because they didn't treat them.
Not necessarily. Let's just deal with the statement as it was made, and
not
try to read anything into it. Pete usually says what he means in an
unambiguous fashion.
The fact _is_ that " the thousands of folks out there who went "no
treatment",
lost the bees, and gave up. They don't write, they don't call, they
just fall
off the map.
That simple fact makes getting a clear and objective picture difficult.
The
effect is called survivorship bias and is a well-know problem that often
makes
objective evaluation difficult or impossible.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_bias
This fact is often lost on people and can cause a lot of needless
argument if it
is not understood and agreed that the data under consideration -- anecdotal
or documented -- may only be a small and unrepresentative or partially
representative sample.
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