>suppose there are 100,000 packages imported in a year and it represents X%
of the potential needed for almond pollination. If those 100K are out of the
picture how cannot the price for pollination be influenced upwards as it
creates more uncertainty?

Brian, I believe that the number is more in the 50,000 per year range, which
would be 3.5% of the needed colonies.  Since the price for those relatively
few packages is about the same as what it would cost for full-sized
replacement colonies to be trucked in, my guess it that they do not have a
substantial effect upon pollination prices.

But your point is well taken--of course the growers are looking to increase
the supply in any way that they can.  However, as far as political clout in
the decision, my feeling is that the almond growers would have little more
influence than the beekeepers.

I will know more tomorrow, after I attend the California Bee Breeders
Association meeting, where a prominent member of the Almond Board can answer
my questions.

Randy Oliver

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