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Hi Chris and All
Now to muddy some waters on a different topic after that clarity ...
I suppose that the answer to your question is complex. Plants can 'decide' to go for flowering after a wide variety of triggers (days of cold below a threshold, daylength of a certain type, perhaps temperature above a certain point, precipitation, probably others and mixtures of triggers) and then they progress towards that goal at a rate which will depend on the conditions (particularly warmth and irradiation) and also the ability of the particular plant to do well in those conditions. Some plants will not have far to go once they hit that trigger (pre-formed catkins just have to expand and open; or whole inflorescences have to form and undergo the special gamete-making cell division (which can be a slow bottleneck).
All in all, a complex process which those nature-watchers amongst us can speculate about at length - particularly as several studies have been reporting an advance of spring of around 2 days per decade in recent decades.
> discussion about which comes into leaf first: oak
> or ash, which seems to be determined by rainfall
> the previous season.
This year ash seems well-advanced though not in flower yet. Does that fit?
best wishes
Gavin
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