> At a 4-5M infection level at the entrance, for N ceranae, maybe 5% of the entrance bees will show an infection, and maybe 2% of the house bees. <etc.>

Thanks.  I guess what I am getting at is that, to my eye at least, although some methods are more insightful than others,  none of these tests appears to actually be predictive.

Sure, we are seeing infected bees, but do we know what results of which tests actually predict an economically meaningful infection and a high probability that the condition will advance?

After all, beekeepers are sacrificing crop to pull supers so they can plug hives with medicated syrup, at considerable cost in terms of the drug, the syrup, and the foregone production. 

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