>> thought "the feral population is growing".
>I would love to see more data on that assumption.

This is not an assumption but an observation by me and others in my area.  My experiences are post-varroa.  Some others have been doing removals for some 20 years.  They say removal calls dwindled with the varroa arrival.  They have also been seeing a big increase in removal calls in the last 3-4 years.  One of them, the most experienced and probably most frequently called, has established a separate yard for his collected ferals.  He has never treated that yard and says they are making it from year to year and takes honey from them. 

>>My "trial" this spring showed zero ferals in my area where there had been beekeepers for may years.

Your area need not be representative of others.  One could speculate that as one goes further north the feral population may be smaller and take longer to recover with the mites taxing them more in a harsher climate.

>>But that is just one data point added to the two others above, actually one since AHB areas do not count.

I'd think they do count.  Genes enter [and leave] feral pools all the time.  AHB and others.  This is not a clear cut scenario.

>>The obvious conclusion from "the feral population is growing" is we have a resistant bees so our problems are over.

Can't draw this sort of conclusion at all.  However, since beekeepers are buying queens claimed to be resistant or hygienic, these genes are entering the ferals.  I hope the breeders are making good progress!

All I can say is that it's very encouraging to get an increasing number of removal calls every year.  I have never seen a marked feral queen and I have never seen foulbrood in ferals.  Both, in my opinion, derive from managed colonies.  And, in spite of my early expectations, I don't get very many calls from regions with the largest concentrations of managed colonies.

Waldemar

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