Slope? Softness of ground? pH?

I'd say you'd need to alter your variables based on the location you are
attempting to predict. I've recorded a number of small cemeteries in
eastern Kentucky and some of them are on ground so steep (and rocky)
you'd think the graves were dug into the mountain like a tunnel. Looks
like the best predictive variable (on anti-predictive, I suppose) in
that neck of the woods is prime farmland. If it's flat and fertile (or
relatively so), don't plant people - plant crops. 

That being said, the place to start is with a clear understanding of
historic land use patterns in your area of interest. In the flat lands
(the rest of the state) historic period burials usually associate
closely with residential land use patterns. The earliest burial clusters
appear to be found in areas suitable for building a house, or later, a
church. I've not completed any statistical modeling studies by any
stretch, but I've a long and abiding interest in DPS, as evidenced by
the morbid decorum (and library) of my office. 

Daniel B. Davis
Archaeologist Coordinator
Kentucky Transportation Cabinet
Division of Environmental Analysis
200 Mero Street
Frankfort, KY 40622
(502) 564-7250

-----Original Message-----
From: HISTORICAL ARCHAEOLOGY [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of
Richard Wright
Sent: Wednesday, February 04, 2009 6:43 PM
To: [log in to unmask]
Subject: Predictive modelling of burials

Predictive modelling of settlement sites used to be all the rage. 

The independent variables were slope of ground, direction of view,
elevation in landscape, closeness to water, closeness to edible
resources, etc..

The dependent variable was the probability of sites, or estimates of the
number of sites.

My question is whether any attempt has been made to apply predictive
modelling to burials.

I'm not talking about pie in the sky stuff, but a study where real data
were fed into the 'equation', and predictions emerged that were
subsequently tested by ground truthing.

Any advice will be welcome, but please don't tell me that I am naive to
think it can be done. The point is that I don't think it can be done. 

Of course we might use the independent variables of softness of ground
and pH of soil to put a circle around some hectares of terrain, but what
about predictive modelling within those circled areas?


Richard Wright