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This article cites a number of studies on how bad science (like the
conviction that vaccines cause autism) is spreading, and what it
takes for people to accept good science. It is a really thorny
issue, as anecdotes are more compelling that the uncertainty of
statistics, and good storytelling inevitably trumps real research,
which by its very nature is subject to contradiction.
At the original link, below, there are lots of clickable links
leading to the original research.
Eric Siegel
Director and
Chief Content Officer
New York Hall of Science
www.nyscience.org
(718) 699-0005 x 317
esiegel at nyscience dot org
ORIGINAL LINK: http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20080224-getting-
the-public-to-pay-attention-to-good-science.html
Getting the public to pay attention to good science
By John Timmer | Published: February 24, 2008 - 07:15PM CT
We're all familiar with news talk shows where two individuals, both
with impressive credentials, argue for completely incompatible
positions. Unfortunately, these sorts of arguments aren't limited to
social or political issues, but have increasingly extended into the
scientific and medical realms. Aside from providing an indication
that you can find someone with an M.D. or Ph.D. that's willing to say
nearly anything (see infomercials for further evidence), these
disagreements are likely to leave the public confused over where to
find credible scientific information.
Separating the scientific wheat from the chaff
The importance of quality information was driven home by a recent
study that revealed a tendency for false or misleading information
regarding breast cancer to appear on web sites devoted to alternative
medicine. So, how is the public supposed to identify quality
scientific information? The recent American Association for the
Advancement of Science meeting included a session devoted to
understanding how the public receives and evaluates scientific
information.
Carl Bialik, The Wall Street Journal's numbers guy, discussed the
problems the public has in terms of receiving decent numerical
information. Bialik cited various examples of news stories that
pushed numbers with phony precision, originated from invalid samples,
or presented inappropriate statistical measures.
Bialik suggested that part of the problem is with readers and
viewers, who like to have concrete numbers to hang on to but rarely
care enough to explore how those numbers are generated. On the
production side, a lot of the unexpected statistics get played as
human interest stories, drawing someone other than a qualified
science reporter. Pressed for time, the stories go out without a
detailed examination. Bialik's solution involved researchers working
with journalists to ensure that numbers are presented properly; the
American Statistical Association also keeps a list of members willing
to work with the press. For the public, the message seemed to be that
a story shouldn't be trusted simply because it had numbers attached
to it.
David Goldston, the former staff director for Congress' House
Committee on Science, focused on the challenges of communicating
scientific information to lawmakers. His message was that, contrary
to popular opinion, most members of Congress like science and want to
be informed. Scientists, however, have a lot to learn about reaching
them on their terms.
The first issue is where to reach them. Scientists, like everyone
else, get a buzz out of visits to the Hill, but Goldston argued that
they should visit members of Congress in their home district if
possible—they'll be competing with fewer people for attention there.
Once the visit starts, scientists should expect to be treated with
respect, but they need to remember to return that; most members of
Congress and their staffs do have the ability to understand
scientific issues if they're well explained.
As for the actual communications, Goldston emphasized that
researchers need to delineate when they're talking about science, and
when they're talking about policy. As he put it, policy is acting
despite residual scientific uncertainties, and the most reasonable
action can't be determined scientifically, so it needs to be made
clear when someone drifts into personal opinion. The science has to
be conveyed in clear terms that make sense to a nonscientific
audience. "Only use metaphors when what they're substituting for is
actually confusing," Goldston said, "and make sure they aren't more
confusing than the issue."
What to do when expertise doesn't matter
With the press and politicians covered, Anne Schuchat of the Centers
for Disease Control talked about a public issue that never used to be
contentious: vaccination. She cited estimates suggesting that public
vaccination efforts have saved the US $43 billion and prevented 1.8
million cases that would have led to tens of thousands of deaths.
Despite the lack of evidence for harm, however, vaccines are getting
the blame for a variety of childhood ailments, and more parents are
deliberately opting out of vaccination programs. In the US, about 0.3
percent of parents are now opting out; Schuchat says that these
families cluster, demonstrating how opting out is a largely social
phenomenon. Unfortunately, it also enhances the risk of disease
outbreaks.
Schuchat mostly discussed how personal concerns fed in to vaccination
decisions. "Fifty years ago, disease was very real to parents," she
stated, noting that parents put forward 1.8 million schoolchildren to
take part in testing of the polio vaccine simply because polio was a
concrete risk, while the risks of the vaccine were abstract and minor
in comparison. Now, with most vaccine-targeted diseases existing only
in the memories of older family members, the risks of vaccination—
discomfort, a rare adverse reaction, even unfounded rumors of an
autism link—seem more concrete than the disease itself.
How do medical authorities overcome these perceived risks? Simply
speaking from a position of authority isn't enough, Schuchat argued.
She cited surveys indicating that, for credibility assessments in
areas of "low concern" (she suggested Tsunami risk in foreign
countries as one example), US citizens are happy to defer to
expertise, rating it as accounting for 85 percent of their
assessment. When the topic shifts to areas of personal concern like
family medicine, the importance of expertise vanishes. Schuchat said
that it drops to where it accounts for only 15 percent of the
decision, equal to a sense of honesty and openness, and far below the
value of empathy, which accounts for roughly half of the decision.
The message was pretty clear; for the public, how decent medical
information is conveyed counts for more than the quality of the
information itself.
The clear message of the session was that a command of facts is never
going to be good enough to convince most segments of the public,
whether they're parents or Congress. How the information is conveyed
can matter more than its content, and different forms of
communication may be necessary for different audiences. As became
clear in the ensuing discussion, most of the public act as consumers
of information, with journalists acting as middlemen. To connect
with the public, scientists have to work with the press to ensure
that two things happen. Reporters have to overcome their ingrained
aversion to the uncertainties of science, and have to avoid
presenting uncertainties as a matter of balance that's addressed via
material from crackpots with credentials.
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