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Here is another example of how profoundly humans - even pre-industrial humans - have affected the atmosphere:
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewpr.html?pid=17769
What's really interesting to me is what it says about North and South America before the European voyages of the early 16th century. The population was "seemingly small" according to the researchers, but had a palpable effect on the CH4 balance; we know those societies were more agrarian than previously thought, yet they were still expanding; clearly not everyone was a nomadic hunter-gatherer, The hunter-gatherers were the ones left -- because they knew how to survive when the agrarian societies collapsed.
I'm alarmed, yes! But I can't help but be fascinated. Just call me Sax Russell.
Marc Taylor
Coordinator, Andrus Planetarium
Hudson River Museum
511 Warburton Avenue
Yonkers, NY 10701
914 963 4550 x223
Fax 963 8558
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> -----Original Message-----
> From: Teresa Eastburn [mailto:[log in to unmask]]
> Sent: Monday, September 12, 2005 9:22 PM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Re: science and global warming
>
>
> ISEN-ASTC-L is a service of the Association of
> Science-Technology Centers
> Incorporated, a worldwide network of science museums and
> related institutions.
> **************************************************************
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>
> I am currently employed as an educational designer at at the
> National Center for Atmospheric
> Research in Boulder, CO. Since your interview with an NCAR
> applied mathematician 13 years
> ago, Lisa, our global coupled climate models have improved
> greatly and confidence in their
> reliability as a prediction tool is extremely strong within
> the scientific community. (Just think
> of the advancements in computing power and resolution
> capabilities over the past 13 years.
> Can you remember your computer or the internet from 1992?
> Today's fastest super
> computers can do approximately 80 trillion calculations per
> second at peak speed.) There
> are still uncertainities and certain variables missing from
> climate models, but a great deal of
> research is going on around the globe to address these
> uncertainities -- clouds' and
> aerosols' for example are not well represented. Today's
> models clearly show that the Earth
> would actually be cooling during this period if it were not
> for human's GHG emissions. It is
> only when models add in anthropogenic factors along with
> natural climate forcings --
> increasing greenhouse gases due to fossil fuel burning,
> methane, etc -- that we see a
> warming in the models. Also, scientists have recently done
> what is known as a "Commitment
> Run" for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's
> climate assessment report due out
> in 2007. In a commitment model run, the model predicts
> warming based on the change in
> the composition of the atmosphere that has ALREADY TAKEN
> PLACE and assumes that we will
> completely halt all future emissions (of course, we are
> continuing to increase our emissions).
> The commitment run clearly shows that even if we stopped
> emitting all GHG NOW, we would
> still continue to warm and oceans would continue to rise
> significantly based on OUR PAST
> emissions. No doubt, it is time for action and leadership on
> this issue on all levels --
> globally, nationally, regionally, and individually.
>
> I recently interviewed 10 of NCAR's leading scientists and
> produced a 26 minute DVD from
> roughly five hours of tape for our climate exhibit floor.
> The DVD will be available from the
> NCAR store later this year should you be interested. Feel
> free to call me or email me with any
> questions you might have about it -- 303.497-1152.
>
> Also, thanks to whomever began this discussion thread. I
> agree with many of you that this is
> a critical issue. Personally, I believe it will be the
> dominating issue and problem of the 21st
> century.
>
> Teri Eastburn
> NCAR Educational Designer
> 1850 Table Mesa Drive
> Boulder, CO 80304
> 303.497.1152
>
>
> -- based----- Original Message -----
> From: Lisa Jo Rudy <[log in to unmask]>
> Date: Monday, September 12, 2005 7:14 am
> Subject: science and global warming
>
> > ISEN-ASTC-L is a service of the Association of Science-Technology
> > CentersIncorporated, a worldwide network of science museums and
> > related institutions.
> >
> **************************************************************
> ***************
> >
> > at around the same time that Global Warming the exhibit was put
> > together, I
> > was assigned an article by the Society for Industrial and Applied
> > Mathematicians on the topic of massively parallel data processing
> > as it applied to modeling
> > climate change. I interviewed a number of applied mathematicians,
> > including
> > one at NCAR in Colorado, etc. At that time (about 12-13 years ago)
> > there was
> > in fact a great deal of disagreement within the scientific
> > community as to the
> > validity of the global warming theory. In fact, several of the
> > mathematicians I interviewed agreed that, since an actual model of
> > global climate change
> > was then virtually impossible to create, it would be a LONG time
> > before "proof"
> > of climate change could be presented.
> >
> > None seemed absolutely sure that climate change was a reality.
> >
> > Lisa
> >
> >
> > Lisa Jo Rudy, Writer/Consultant
> > 625 Chelten Hills Drive
> > Elkins Park, PA 19027
> > www.lisarudy.com
> > 215-635-9735
> >
> >
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