>for some unknown reason the AFB spores do not
>cause an immediate outbreak but lay dormet until conditions are right. AFB
>has confounded (at times) some of our brightest beekeeping minds.

I have also tought about this.

We know that it only takes 3 - 4 spores if they are fed to a single larva at the right time to get AFB symptoms.

We also know that spores are viable for a long time. We have had a positive reaction fron frames about 15 years old, but I know of much older results.

1 dead larva makes about 2 -3 billion spores.

These can hang aruound in hive for many years in honey, pollen, bees and expecially in old brood combs. So it is more question  of probability - not conditions -  if you get visible AFB  after many years not seeing it. OK I admit that if you have weak colonies because for example varroa - you are more likely add up to the probability, so conditions have a effect, but probabities have a strong side. Would be nice to see a mathematician to work with a biologist to think about this.

Some beekeepers are lucky and win money from lottery. Some beekeepers are extreamly unlucy and get AFB from just few spores.

Every year a lot of spores go out of the hive with extracted honey, bee excrements etc. But some remain hoping to get the right time and place for themselves.

> There are many places in the world which have never seen such a huge AFB
> problem and when small and contained many solutions can be used.

Yes, one reason in Finland is that we have never had much feral colonies. Also the density of colonies is high only in small part of the country. Which is by the way the area with most AFB. 50 % of beekeepers in this area have AFB spores in their random  honey sample. But they dont have a lot visible desease, even when very few ( less than 5 % ) of them use antibiotics.

Ari Seppälä

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