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Interestingly, Science published a paper on just this topic in June.
This is from that journal (on line). The in-line citations are
worthwhile, too.
----------
Science, Vol 308, Issue 5729, 1753-1754 , 17 June 2005
CLIMATE:
Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming
Kevin Trenberth
The marked increase in land-falling hurricanes in Florida and Japan in
2004 has raised questions about whether global warming is playing a
role. In his Perspective, Trenberth explains that the observational
hurricane record reveals large natural variability from El Niņo and on
multidecadal time scales, and that trends are therefore relatively
small. However, sea surface temperatures are rising and atmospheric
water vapor is increasing. These factors are potentially enhancing
tropical convection, including thunderstorms, and the development of
tropical storms. These changes are expected to increase hurricane
intensity and rainfall, but the effect on hurricane numbers and tracks
remains unclear.
The author is at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR),
Boulder, CO 80307, USA.
----------
-Kevin
On Sep 1, 2005, at 4:39 AM, Josh Phillips wrote:
> ISEN-ASTC-L is a service of the Association of Science-Technology
> Centers
> Incorporated, a worldwide network of science museums and related
> institutions.
> ***********************************************************************
> ******
>
> Of course, it's a great deal more complicated than either Ross
> Gelbspan or Wesley's website make out. You can't lay the blame for
> Katrina unequivocally at the door of global warming any more than you
> can deny that humans are affecting the atmosphere in a way that is
> likely to have serious, irreversible consequences for our descendants.
> Oversimplification leads to polarisation leads to stagnation in the
> debate of the kind americans find in the evo/cre controversy and brits
> find over animal rights. Climate change is far more important an
> issue in practical terms than either of these two.
> For a measured, well referenced (written by working climate scientists
> themselves) counterpoint to the website Wesley mentions, see
> www.realclimate.org
>
>
> Josh Phillips
> Science Communication Officer
> Museum of Science and Industry in Manchester
> Manchester M3 4FP
> 0161 6060117
> www.msim.org.uk
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