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Yes, global warming is happening (and finally the big entities such as the
National Academies are admitting it), but is Gelbspan's Op-Ed the most
responsible fodder for an exhibit? Gelbspan cites no sources for his
theories in this article but rather attacks "big oil"; in fact, scientists
aren't sure *what* is happening with tropical cyclones as the data before
1950 are thin at best. Sadly, it's just Gelbspan's type of hype that sells
newspapers. I'd rather see something that points to the fact that it may
very well be global warming that's causing the increase in hurricanes, but
that we're just not sure yet that it's not natural variations - see (below)
a letter to the editor in response to Gelbspan and this conclusion from
realclimate.org, which comes to basically the same conclusion (that the
increase in hurricanes could be due to global warming, but we're not 100%
sure yet, but here's *why* we think what we think):

Global warming doesn't need hype

August 31, 2005

WHILE I do not doubt the effects of global warming and the long-term dangers
that it presents us with, I think Ross Gelbspan is off-base by blaming
global warming for every single natural disaster that now occurs
(''Katrina's real name," op ed, Aug. 30).

If you look back just two years ago, to 2003, the weather was relatively
calm compared with what we have experienced in the past year. Is Gelbspan
claiming that global warming didn't exist in 2003? It is an issue that is
best defined by long-term trends, not by disasters that happen on a yearly
basis.

Global warming is real. Gelbspan would have been better off comparing yearly
averages from 50 years ago with those of today.

Gelbspan should consider other issues as well. Look at the restructuring of
southern Florida's landscape from swampland and marshland to a more
developed and better-drained place to build. In the past, hurricanes would
traditionally turn north before cutting across the Florida peninsula. Why do
they seem to be more prone to traveling directly over it in recent days?
This is the real subject that should be looked at when comparing the
Atlantic hurricane seasons of the past with what is happening right now.

MICHAEL SANTOS, Brighton  

From Realclimate.org, May 4, 2005
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=140:

...If the present high frequency of tropical cyclones prevails, that in
itself would be a climate change per definition (i.e. a change in cyclone
statistics). It is (virtually) impossible to prove that a single (or a small
number) freak weather event(s) is (are) caused by increasing CO2, but when a
large number are observed, it may be possible to spot a pattern of change -
yet it is difficult to attribute such a change to a cause unless the
mechanisms are understood. So, we can only tell for sure with hindsight
whether the high number of tropical cyclones are an indication of a climate
change (let's hope it's not!). It is nevertheless legitimate to ask whether
these have been a consequence of natural variations of if a global warming
can have increased the risk for more intense storms - and many have done so
(e.g. in Eos 2004
<http://ivis.eps.pitt.edu/courses/agrm/pdf/2004EOS_v50_n85.pdf>). And
rightly so - when there are emerging signs that can point to a change in the
storm statistics, there ought to be a discussion about these results. In my
opinion, a disagreement between experts at present stage on this issue is
therefore part of the normal scientific discourse...

Finally, an excerpt from a comment on the above entry from realclimate:
"One of the aspects of "global warming " that makes it appear so
disreputable to some is the willingness for those who speak for it to do so
in alarming, albeit false tones." - the commentor is referring ostensibly to
the media here. 

(back to Katie's thoughts): I'd hate to see such an exhibit on global
warming fall into the same trap/problem of too much hype turning people away
before they even get to think about the underlying issues.

--Katie
 
--

Kathryn Stofer
TerraLink Manager
Maryland Science Center
601 Light Street
Baltimore, MD 21230
410/545-5976
410/545-5974 fax

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