> what would be pushing the price
> down in the USA and possibly Canada?

Good questions.

First, let me say that I am talking worst-case, and that things may not work
out the way we predict.

A sudden price decline is not a certainty, although a number of things are
falling into place for such an eventuality over the next few years.

Many things can change, although the huge sudden collapse of US bee
populations is already well underway.  Chemicals are now failing everywhere,
and many beekeepers did not use the temporary respite they provided to get a
sustainable program working for them.  Many STILL do not monitor their mite
load!  Some are now going to high-dose fluvalinate - 10x the recommended -
but we all know that avenue is a dead end.

Anyhow...

The honey price in Canada will fall far more than  in the USA, since the
Canadian dollar has been low (saving our bacon over the past few years), but
now is headed for par with the US dollar.  The loonie is already up 30% over
the past 24 months from its all-time low.  See
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CADUSD=X&t=2y . The mitigating factor for
Canucks, though is that white honey should fall less than the darker grades,
and most of the Western Canadian crop is very white.

> Are imports going to
> increase some how to drive the price down to consumers and
> beekeepers, or just beekeepers?

The talk of consumer resistance turns out to have been just that, talk.
Apparently retail sales are healthy, although industrial grades did prove to
be price-sensitive.  Industrial honey sales are expected to recover somewhat
with lower prices.

Retail packers, however, have gotten used to an expanded business, and
margins are back up.  Their locked-in expenses - and debts - have adjusted
to the increased dollar volume.  None of them will want to see their
businesses shrink.  They'll resist a retail price drop.  Thus, the retail
price is expected to hold better than the producer price.  We'll see, since
US packers may get hit by low-priced _packaged_ imports, as the Canadian
packers were recently.

In the background, many new countries are ramping up their bulk production,
and, even if China learns to eat their entire production, plus some, in the
next decade, which I predict, there are others like India and Brazil that
have their eye on the USA, and think that $US 1.00 per _kilogram_ is a very
attractive price.  (That is 45c/lb). :(   Even with the US dollar dropping
like a stone, the price may not change much, since the major culprits
curently driving down honey prices in the USA - China and Argentina - have
their currency pegged to the US dollar.

> And if less bees used for
> less USA honey production with more used for pollenation
> work, can you go deeper into specifics why what you said
> may be coming about?

Almond acreage is up, almond prices are up, and the cost of bees as a
portion of the return to growers - even at $75 (or even $100) per set - is
actually still quite low.  Growers _know_ they need bees -- at least two
hives per acre.  Some are wanting three for insurance, since the third
colony will pay for itself, plus some, although a third hive is not nearly
as essential as the first two. Also see
http://honeycouncil.ca/users/folder.asp?FolderID=876&nID=445

Even if US producers quit honey production entirely (will never happen)
there will be little effect on honey prices, since the imports set the price
and the world supply of honey is increasing.

Having said all that, don't panic.  A lot hinges on the next Argentine crop,
due in February.  They are now out of white honey, and if they have a
failure, then the price may rebound.

For the long term the answer is in quality assurance programs to
differentiate North American honey from competitors, and provide grounds to
exclude many of the current imports, on the basis of inadequate safety and
sanitary precautions.  Canada is well on the way to having a program in
place: C-BISQT, it is called, short for Canadian Bee Industry Safety Quality
and Traceability program.  The US has nothing (zero) happening on this
front, and I am told that many US beekeepers could not even meet the
standards in some third world countries with their present set-ups, so it is
not likely to happen soon.  It is not even on the radar as far as I can
tell.

BTW, Lyle said the packer/importer honey board will not happen, for various
reasons, and, FWIW, he did say some nice things about the current NHB.

Now, more than ever, it is important to get out to the 2005 US National
meetings.  Info at  http://www.honeybeeworld.com/USmeetings/.

Anyone who has been thinking of coming to Alberta and hasn't made it yet,
we're hoping to meet at the Fantasyland Hotel in the world-famous West
Edmonton Mall again next year, so plan to attend.

allen

A Beekeeper's Diary: http://www.honeybeeworld.com/diary/

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