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Date: | Fri, 20 Aug 2004 21:49:43 +0200 |
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--- Bill Truesdell <[log in to unmask]> a
écrit :
> A "first raw evaluation" is not IPM.
Have I written it is ?
I try my best to understand. But I do not see the
contradiction between terms. My understanding is that
IPM is made of multiple evaluations (and other
things). So I agree with you and Jim about monitoring
all the season along and having excel curves...but
when you have just one point you may want to know if
you are 2 weeks from the crash or 2 months. I think it
was more or less the original question, wasn't it ?
> If you only have one mite reading, you should not
> use mite drop but a
> more direct and quantifiable measure, such as an
> ether roll.
I understand your point. But it is answering the
original question by "you should to another type of
sampling". A valuable recommandation but not a
decision help answere. ;-)
> Over time, which is its key, the mite drop method
> will show trends.
> Which is also a part of IPM.
I am considering my excel curves (established with
calculated population with the British varroa
calculator from every 2 weeks natural drops
monitoring) of my hives using this year and last year
data. I find this slope approach interesting but I
probably missed something. If I only consedere the
exponential slope when it happens:
- how can I schedule treatment in the right time ? I
mean, if I extrapolate the population evolution in
time I may use an available window in the season for
treatment a couple of weeks or days before the
exponential slope happens.
- how can I know the final score of the varroa in the
hive for winter ? I mean if I established my hives
have a good wintering success rate below a varroa
population threshold, the slope in mid-september, by
itself, is not sufficient to know if I can take the
risk to let the hive go in winter without treatment.
- if I use an alternative treatment with, lets say 50
to 80% efficiency, how can I know if the treatment is
sufficient for wintering ? The slope will not tell me
if the varroa population is still to high for
wintering with a reasonnable success probability. But
maybe I did not understood correctly.
Thanks
Hervé
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