> Hello Allen,
>Could you give me some information about what is going
>on with honey prices?  Seems to be that nobody is buying
>honey. Why are prices going down? I heard it will go down
>to $0.85 Canadian and for the next two years will be that low.
>Packer commentary...  Please send us some information
>Your fellow beekeeper

At the AHPC meeting a speaker covered the markets and pointed out that North
America had a short crop in white honey, and that Argentina has a dark crop
and, although there is a good supply there, exporting is now controlled,
slowing the flow.  Prices should be holding, or rising if that were the only
factor at play here.

Nonetheless, the anti-dumping is failing, and Chinese honey is getting in,
and the contamination scare is winding down, for now.  Also, although not
strictly legal, many figure that ultra-filtered honey is somehow getting
into the store packs, and driving down the white honey prices. Other
adulteration may be happening too, at levels just below detection.

Argentina is coming back, slowly, onto the market as well, and Brazil is
moving a lot of honey into export now.  24,000 Tons, if I got it right.
Some correct me if I'm wrong.  I have trouble visualizing these huge
amounts.

Previously -- in recent years -- there were some unexpected contractions in
supply due to contamination and due to the anti-dumping that caught packers
short, and forced them to bid up the price to avoid being left out as prices
escalated.

The panic buying has now ended, and the sellers' market is over for the time
being.  Is it now a buyers' market?  It is hard to tell -- yet, anyhow.
After years of worrying about a short supply and competing for honey,
packers are sitting back and buying as little as they can to get by,
expecting lower prices next week, next month, and maybe next year.  In a
declining market, they have no strong incentive to buy ahead, and, indeed
are afraid that they will be caught with high priced product if prices
decline farther.  That could change suddenly.  Or not.

Without trying to predict this market, I will say that usually prices run a
bit too far in any direction once they get going.  The price was bid too
high for a while, and now, if the normal pattern can be expected, we will
see it drop a bit too far, then come back.  The fear now is that, just as
packers panicked and paid too much in the rising market, beekeepers will
panic or be squeezed, and sell too cheap in the falling market.  The market
turned fast, and I know of several brokers who have been caught 'way
off-side with high-priced stock and no immediate sale for it.

At the AHPA, it seems to me that I heard talk of prices in the 85c to 90c US
range, and that is about a dollar Canadian.  Some beekeepers are doing
considerably better, though.  I'm sure some sales will come in below that
range, since some beekeepers will become desperate to sell at any price.
Packers are calling around looking for low hanging fruit, but so far, most
beekeepers are well-financed and well-informed and are holding out, or just
selling a little.

I called the  Mid US Honey Price Line just now (763-658-4193), and the
message was from Dec 22. Basically the story was this:  White loads were
reported at $1.05, $1.30, and $1.10.

Hold out?  Sell?  I cannot advise, but I know this market has fluctuated
over the years and those who could hold out usually did well -- eventually.
The world market has changed lately, though, and my crystal ball is cloudy.

allen

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