Cedar or not, I would guess that paint on the outside makes no real
difference to moisture control.  That said, paint Color may.  In our hot,
semi-arid prairies of the western U.S., hives are painted white or
reflective silver -- since shade trees are virtually absent and most of
these areas too remote and far flung to warrant shade cloths.  Wide open
bottom entrances and lots of water do the trick.

In cool climates in the northern coastal states, I've seen lots of dark
colored hives - brown, green, etc.  Out here on the prairies, in the
winter, we often wrap hives in black felt in an effort to collect some heat
on sunny days.

Now, I have seen some dramatic examples of the so-called breathing of a
hive, or maybe I should say the absence of breathability, whatever that is.
 Whereas I doubt that paint on the outside of wood makes much difference
per se to all of this, the hive construction materials do make a difference.

I've seen hives made of high density particle board (a glued up composite
material) placed side by side with regular softwood (pine/fir board) hives
in the spring in Missoula and have watched the water dripping out of the
particle board hives, with none from the regular hives.  Both types of hive
were painted white on the outside, but the dense, wood/glue composite
sheeted water.  The owner was a poor student with a strong back.  Ever
tried to lift a deep super made of high density particle board?

I've also seen hard, plastic-sided hives in the Seattle area in the spring,
where its really wet from rain and high humidity.  These plastic hives
literally ran water out the bottom.  The wooden hives also do so, but not
nearly as much.  Again, I refer to inspecting side by side setups.

Note, I am not referring to the expanded foam plastic hives that are now
showing up on the market.  These hives were made of a dense, hard plastic.
It wouldn't hold paint, was more or less impervious to things and certainly
didn't absorb much of anything.

One other note, the Seattle folks used slatted racks on the bottom of their
hives.  Don't know how much difference it made in ventilation, moisture,
etc. -- but it served a purpose.  It kept the wet bottom boards away from
the brood frames, giving the bees a bit of a gap and a way to go in and out
of the hive without trudging through water and slime.  This was
particularly evident in misplaced hives where the entrances were higher
than the back of the box.  You could find mini-ponds in some of those
hives.  Obviously, the simple fix was to tip the hives slightly forward so
that condensation and rain drained out.

Jerry

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