"I do not know what tests they run but am fairly confident such tests
include DNA analysis."

The last one I sent in they said they used a mitochondrial DNA test. That
could prove problematic if a European queen mated with one or more AFB
drones, as the hive could conceivably be totally Africanized and show up
negative with that sort of test. But of course if that test showed
positive, it would probably be doubly positive, in the sense that the
drones who mated with her would likely be AHB also.

As far as the number of swarms that were likely sent out by that hive or
groups of hives, when I was in S. Africa, the local vineyard workers knew
that I was interested in swarms. Even though there weren't many hives in
our area (4 inches rain every year, practically no beekeepers) there were
plenty of small swarms. The few hives that were there regularly sent out
small swarms more or less the size of a tennis ball. The locals would find
them while working the grapes, and report them to me for a reward of a few
Rands or some frozen chicken. I would guess that's one of the ways they
fill up an area so quickly. Perhaps not a giant swarm every year like
Italians etc.., but a dozen or even more micro swarms in a very hospitable
environment with suddenly little competition from EHBs. I've never been
good at math, so am not sure whether terms like geometric, exponential or
whatever apply, but if that hive/hives was there for a few years, the
whole area is likely Africanized.

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