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Date: | Wed, 6 Mar 2002 10:52:58 -0500 |
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At 09:30 PM 3/5/02 -0500, you wrote:
> 1000 is only 0.0004% of the approx. 250 million
>americans. Five bees out of a hive of 60,000 is 0.0083%. This is a
>much larger sample than we get in our political polls, etc. Smaller
>sample sizes do have a higher margin of error but what really drives the
>sample size in the consistancy of varience (square of the standard
>deviation) of the data.
It is important to note that proper selection of these small samples is
extremely important. I can hardly poll 1000 individual randomly from
a given county and extrapolate to the entire country.
I don't recall the original message indicating the method of selecting
the 5 random individuals from a given colony. Were they randomly
selected from the entire cluster (ie. some from the edge, middle, etc.)
or were they simply the first 5 bees to the entrance when you knock
on the hive? It makes a difference.
There is also such a thing as polling to small a sample. Calling up
5 random people in the town I work in (population around 30,000) isn't
likely to give me a good idea of income levels, local politics etc. You
need more than a simple random sample, you need an evenly
distributed sample. Normally we take random samples with populations
of people because choosing a evenly distributed sample of people is
difficult, but random selection of a large enough sample with give us
an approximation of an even distribution.
-Tim
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