> Is there any open discussion about what is going to happen when the Chinese
> authorities get their act together and possibly flood the market with
several
> seasons worth of honey.
>
> Is it considered likely that the previously antibiotic tainted crop will be
> diluted with subsequent crops and then put onto the world market?

Why would they need to??  At most there are two export years that will have
had *some* impact from residue restrictions.  Using information freely
available on the web, the following can be deduced.......

China produces around 204,000 tonnes PA.  They export around 84,000 tonnes.
i.e. domestic consumption is around 122,000 tonnes  (10 yr averages to 2001 -

FAO stats).

Japan is one of their largest markets and has largely been unaffected.  Japan

imports around 90% of its honey imports (of 40,000 tonnes PA) from China i.e.

around 35,000 tonnes.  They therefore sell around 50,000 tonnes annually to
their remaining markets, mostly EU (Germany and UK) and USA.

The US did not impose immediate restrictions on Chinese honey, but some of
the EU did in approx Oct 2001.  This would have trimmed some of their sales
to there for 2001 crop.  Assume most of the sales from 2002 crop to EU
stopped.  Estimate therefore around 50,000 - 80,000 tonnes surplus in stocks
unable to be sold because of residues at this time.

This does not amount to "several seasons worth" as is only around half their
annual domestic consumption (which appears to be rising).

Assuming they have been able to stop the residues from getting into their
honey in the current crop, then they only need to export current crop and
domestically consume their "stockpile".

The big issue will be *when* they are deemed able to export to the EU again.

As soon as that happens I would anticipate they will be pricing agressively
to gain back lost "share".

Regards,
Peter Bray


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