> 2.) Increasing the sample size a little makes a big
> difference in certainty of
> results.
>
> That is the problem with detecting and controlling the mite
> when it enters a new
> country as it is now in New Zealand.
>
> Because the incidence is so low and unevenly distributed in
> most hives at the
> beginning, sampling techniques have a high degree of
> uncertainty compared to
> places where levels are higher and more evenly distributed.
>
> Unfortunately their goal in NZ is to have 100% certainty of
> 0% infestation.
> That is simply mathematically impossible, so I predict a high
> certainty of an
> (expensive) failure.

In the middle of July, the decision by the NZ Government was made to develop
a control programme for varroa, rather than attempt eradication.  While some
beekeepers were disappointed that no attempt to eradicate was undertaken,
others were pleased with the decision as it ensured at least some government
assistance in developing the control programme, etc.

Nick Wallingford
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