ISEN-ASTC-L is a service of the Association of Science-Technology Centers
Incorporated, a worldwide network of science museums and related institutions.
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As Dave Taylor suggests, projections about increased attendance are more
an art than a science.  I have a few bits of information to offer:

1) In 2000 or so, the Carnegie Science Center published a statistical
study of the effect of an expansion on attendance at about 20 science
centers.  This is particularly useful since it includes a model
spreadsheet into which you can plug a set of variables including change
in size, market penetration pre expansion, change in marketing budget,
and a few other things.  These are the variables that their multivariate
regression analysis (if I remember my statistics correctly) showed to be
the most powerfully predictive of changes in attendance.  I think this
is still available from the Carnegie Science Center.  If you can't reach
anyone there, let me know off list and I might have some leads.

2) A colleague at a consulting company that helps museums do feasibility
studies for expansions told me that a group of about 8 science centers
that had an average attendance of 600K in 2000 now have an average
attendance of 350K!  That is pretty dire...we are opening up a new wing,
and have been doing our best to be conservative about our projections. 

3) The general wisdom is that there is a bump in attendance when opening
a new building/wing, which then subsides after a few months.  The new
level is typically higher than the original level of attendance but
lower than the bump.  I have heard empirical evidence that this is not a
very accurate description of what generally happens, but it is received
wisdom  among museum people.

As we are just in the throes of opening a new wing (opens Nov 23rd)
these questions have been very much on our mind.  If you would like to
continue this discussion in more detail, please feel free to contact me
off list.

Good luck!

Eric Siegel
Director of Planning
   & Program Development
Connections Project Director
New York Hall of Science
47-01 111th Street
Queens, NY 11368
[log in to unmask] 
www.nyscience.org

> -----Original Message-----
> From: Informal Science Education Network 
> [mailto:[log in to unmask]] On Behalf Of Jenny Theodorou
> Sent: Tuesday, September 28, 2004 6:16 PM
> To: [log in to unmask]
> Subject: Attendance projections
> 
> 
> ISEN-ASTC-L is a service of the Association of 
> Science-Technology Centers Incorporated, a worldwide network 
> of science museums and related institutions.
> **************************************************************
> ***************
> 
> We are opening a small (7,000 total sq ft, 3,650 exhibit 
> space) Marine Science Center in Santa Barbara, CA. I am 
> trying to project our annual attendance and am having 
> difficulties. Can anyone suggest a method/ formula? I am 
> anxiously awaiting the 2003 ASTC survey data and will order 
> the 2002 survey data as well.
> 
>  
> 
> Our facility will open next year and be situated in Santa 
> Barbara on a high traffic area wharf. The Wharf sees between 
> 500,000 to 1 million visitors and Santa Barbara has over 
> 400,000 residents. We are about 1 ½ hours from LA so the 
> population pool is enormous. Our facility will only have 
> approximately 3500 of exhibit space. Our old facility was 
> about 2000 sq ft and served ~70,000 visitors. The new 
> improved and much more interactive facility will be 3600 sq feet.
> 
>  
> 
> Can anyone point me in a direction?
> 
>  
> 
>  
> 
> Jenny Theodorou
> 
> Sea Center Director
> 
> -----------------------------
> 
> Santa Barbara Museum of Natural History 
> 
> 2559 Puesta Del Sol Road
> 
> Santa Barbara, CA 93105
> 
>  
> 
> (805) 682-4711 x342
> 
> (805) 569-3170 fax
> 
>  
> 
> 
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