Personally, I value the work from Penn State:

> Colony Size, Rather Than Geographic Origin of Stocks, Predicts Overwintering Success in Honey Bees. Mehmet Ali Döke, Carley M. McGrady,  Mark Otieno,  Christina M. Grozinger, and Maryann Frazier.  (2019). Journal of Economic Entomology, 112(2), 525-533.

Additionally, Johansson writes:

> We must be prepared to view the incidence of winter losses as having at least some element of chance. Every northern beekeeper has found dead colonies in spring with heavy stores and a cluster of dead bees on empty combs far from the honey. These deaths are not necessarily avoided by heavy packing. ... Success depends on a balance of maximum dormancy, optimum bee population, minimum food consumption, occasional ameliorating temperatures when the colony can recluster on honey combs and take defaecating flights, and a measure of good luck.

T. S. K. Johansson & M. P. Johansson (1969) Wintering, Bee World, 50:3, 89-100

PLB

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