> For a complete picture  of winter kill in Canada, please check the following website.
> http://capabees.org/2012/10/23/capa-statement-on-honey-bees-losses-in-canada-2011/

It will be very interesting to see how this past winter stacks up when 
the numbers come in.  I'm guessing that the losses will be far higher 
than the previous year as the winter in Western Canada tested many hives 
beyond their limits and to the point of decline or destruction.  Quite a 
few more than usual did not make it to the finish line or succumbed 
shortly after.

In regard the neonics and canola, I think it is clear that _if_ there is 
a problem, it is not a very big one when viewed overall, but I don't 
think that we can conclude that there are not local or subtle effects 
that show up under specific conditions.  I'm not saying there are and 
I'm not saying there are not, but common sense says there must be, on a 
micro, if not macro scale.

If there are, are they significant?  Maybe not from an overall 
perspective, but for an individual bee, hive, beekeeper or region -- as 
the case may be -- perhaps.

Averages can conceal problems.  Knowing that in a population only that 
the average person has too much to eat can conceal that some are 
starving.  If this information is of interest, discovering that fact 
takes more study that just seeing the average.

If the effect were, for sake of argument, a 1% overall negative effect, 
then that would mean a cost to a million dollar gross business, netting 
$100,000, of $10,000 -- or 10% of net income. Ouch.  If it is not evenly 
distributed, then for some, the burden could be much larger and for 
others negligible.

A 1% overall effect industry-wide is undetectable in beekeeping as so 
many other factors are in play, and also any such effect would not 
likely be evenly distributed.

This particularly true if that effect is delayed, or a shortening of bee 
lifespan.  That small shortening of lifespan would not show up in a good 
winter, but could mean amplified losses in winters where every last bee 
survival day counts as the effect curve would have a knee --  or hockey 
stick if one prefers that image.

I see that this debate has become polarized again, with some just 
wanting to bring in a verdict and move on and others wanting to cheer 
for one "side" or another.

I don't think we can ever close this debate as we simply have 
insufficient data to conclude anything except that there is no gross, 
obvious universal adverse effect.  We may never have enough data to decide.

As some have pointed out, tiny sublethal doses of some neonics could 
even conceivably (although not probably) be beneficial.  How could we know?

For this reason, I find the lab work being done -- the good lab work by 
real scientists, not some flakes out to cash in on the public's current 
fascination with bees  -- so interesting and worthwhile, and why I 
appreciate the open-minded effort that some are putting into this question.

Knowing the answers may not change anything in the big picture, but may 
help fine tune specific practises and locate and mitigate local problems 
-- if there are any.

I suspect there are.

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