> Bill T. says we must wait till the USDA / Bee Informed winter 2012/2013
> survey is out.
>
> 2012/2013 Survey:
>
> 9.2% increase over the previous winter of 2012/2012
>

We taked about this when I posted the survey results. You may have missed
the post. The winter was average for winter losses. The prior year was
lower and years before that were higher and lower, which is how you get an
average. As Randy pointed out, losses track the severity of the winter.

What I take from the survey is trends, and so far the trend is up if the
winter is bad and down if it is not.

The reason I give little importance to the survey is as BEE Informed says
> the survey is based on 22.9% of beekeepers. LESS THAN ONE FOURTH.
>
> Could you base the winter loss rate on your local association if less than
> a fourth of your members commented?
>

Yes. If you know anything about surveys, getting 1/4 of the targeted
population is exceptional. Check the sample size for national political
polls.

Bob, you are a great kibitzer but I would really like you to do the kind of
in depth analysis with data that Randy has done and counter any argument he
has raised. It is easy to say someone is wrong and quite a bit harder to
show why.

I have found that when I put effort into countering someone's opinion I can
find out that they have valid data and are actually right. Many years ago,
when the issue of Imid first came up in studies with bumblebees in
greenhouses as well as the French reports on sunflowers, I was in the Imid
is a bad pesticide especially for bees camp. Time, better data, and actual
results in the field has changed my mind, mainly on seed treatment.

Bill Truesdell
Bath, Maine

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