Assuming one could be happy with a smaller honey crop per hive,  how far
north could a single deep be expected to survive? Would we need a different
fall protocol if we moved to wintering single deeps? 

If you kept a colony in one and a half stories, it would have adequate space to survive. The most likely scenario would be, they would fill the hive with honey in the spring and cast a prime swarm. Then, they would repopulate and probably cast another swarm. The colony would no doubt be adequately populous by fall, and overloaded with honey. 

This method is not dissimilar to skep beekeeping where about half the hives were harvested for honey and half were left to overwinter. The capacity of a skep is similar to the size Tom is using, and the management is about the same: they check them a few times during the year, capture swarms when they come out (if they are there at the moment).

PLB

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