>
> > The point is simple  if immigration is an big an issue as many claim,
> we would see it throughout the season.


The hard data from several studies does not support the above claim.  Those
studies typically found that immigration climbs from early summer, spikes
in late summer/fall, then drops off.

>IF  this immigration issue was really "the smokeing gun"  then we would
> see a cascade.
>

Such as "cascade" was clearly observed after the invasion of varroa into
most countries.  As colonies began to collapse, the remainder were
overwhelmed by drifted mites.  I've seen this occur myself.

>
> >the portion of any mites in crashing hives that successfully emigrates is
> tiny. (they cited 2.5% if I recall)


Yes, was a small portion, likely unrealistically small if it were to be
applied to a typical apiary, in which drift of workers occurs to a much
greater extent.


> >Caution must be used in doing random samples.  But if you only miss one
> in 40 and even if 20% of the mites make it out.


I don't know why you chose 1 in 40.  In the data set from my own operation
that I recently published, 1 in 4 colonies had unacceptable mite levels. So
let's change your figure to a more realistic 1 in 10 with mite levels 20x
higher than the norm.  If your 20% of the mites make it into other hives,
that would increase their mite counts by 44%.

 >The problem with that is that its usually just one or two hives doing the
robbing

I've long wondered about this.  Do you have evidence do you have to support
this claim?

>Yes,  I do feel as beekeepers we are a huge whiney mess.


Actually, humans in general are a whiney mess--no need to single out
beekeepers : )


> > Listening to certain speakers makes one want to give up and go home.
>

Yeah, a sad fact.  Sometimes I find myself saying "I can't believe that I
just wasted a precious hour of my remaining life (I'm of that age)
listening to that speaker spout erroneous information."

>
> >In this case (mite immigration) is a potential real key to mite control.
> Completely  understanding it may be very important long term.


As you say, it's all about the math : )

-- 
Randy Oliver
Grass Valley, CA
www.ScientificBeekeeping.com

             ***********************************************
The BEE-L mailing list is powered by L-Soft's renowned
LISTSERV(R) list management software.  For more information, go to:
http://www.lsoft.com/LISTSERV-powered.html