> So where were the controls?  Is it possible to draw any valid conclusions at all from the study?

Honestly, you have hit the nail on the head. I was never impressed by that particular effort, with the flaws that you noted. However, it was the closest thing I could find. Obviously, the whole thing has to be properly contextualized, with controls (as you say).

Just cataloguing the outliers, tells us zip. What I would like to tease out is the typical life expectancy of a colony in the wild, and compare that to survival rates of minimally managed and maximally managed colonies. It looks to me like colonies in our area live about 3 years, or roughly one third fail every year. 

I would think that five years or more is an achievable goal, with proper management (prevention or control of disease, swarming, honey clogged brood nest, etc.). And for comparison, one would also want minimally managed colonies, probably just adding supers to try to reduce swarming (as much as that will do so).

PLB

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