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From:
Mike Rossander <[log in to unmask]>
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Informed Discussion of Beekeeping Issues and Bee Biology <[log in to unmask]>
Date:
Wed, 29 Apr 2009 08:36:56 -0700
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Yoon asked about compensation calculations for lost business from a brush-kill by the electrical coop.  
 
From your description of the situation, it seems like you need advice from a competent accountant or a claims adjuster more than legal advice right now.  I am none of those but here are some thoughts on how I might tackle the question in your shoes.  
 
Since they've offered to compensate your loss, I'm guessing that it will be their insurance company paying, not the contractor directly.  The classic insurance model is based on replacement cost of the asset at equivalent levels of maturity/depreciation.
 
The most credible estimate of your loss is 'replacement with same species and equivalent maturity'.
   Number of trees
 x a bid from a local nursery at cost per tree
 + costs to dig out the dead trees, deliver and plant new trees and provide the first year's care to make sure that the trees are successfully established.
 
Since you said you lost about fifty of "varying maturity", you may want to run that calculation separately for each rough grouping of maturities.  I would also recommend that you itemize the calculation so they have the option to replace the trees (maybe they can negotiate a bulk discount) but pay you cash to do the first year's care yourself, for example.
 
This approach ignores your incremental honey loss between the time of the spraying and the time that the replacement is complete.  As long as the replacement is done fairly quickly, it's probably not worth the effort it would take to value it.
 
Other calculations which would probably make you whole include:
 
'Replacement with much younger trees'
    Number of trees (again, by maturity grouping)
  x (a bid from the nursery for the cost of trees of that maturity less the value of the younger versions)

The assumption in this approach is that the value to you of the older trees is roughly equivalent to the market's opinion of the value of the older trees.  They replace the trees with younger versions plus pay you some cash to cover the difference in value.  Since you get value not just from the trees' visual beauty but also from honey production, the assumption of market value won't be strictly true but it might be close enough for your purposes.
 
As with the 'replacement with equivalent maturity', be sure to include the removal and replanting estimates.
 
'Net present value of incremental honey production'
It is theoretically possible to run a valuation calculation on the net present value of your future honey losses but that will be an extremely difficult calcuation to defend.  In order to even start, you will have to have very detailed records about your honey production before you started planting the trees and every year since.  You'll also have to have careful records of changes to your number of hives and the changes in local weather.  It will also help if your management practices have remained exactly identical across the entire time.  Any change to any assumption will have to be factored into your calculation and the assumption defended when talking with the insurance company.  This calculation might give you the largest number but it would probably also be the least reliable approach.
 
If you want to run a valuation calculation, I would recommend that you start with your honey production level ten years ago as a baseline.  If you've changed the number of hives, divide by the number of colonies to get a per-hive value.  Look at your last year's production before the spraying and again calculate a per-hive value.  For each year, calculation how much 'above baseline' you were.
 
If you have comparable data from another beeyard, you should factor in any changes that you saw there as well.  If, for example, your other yard was up 10% in 2005 because of great weather, you should reduce your home yard by the same amount to get a 'normalized' increase that is due only to the trees.  Normalization by comparing to another beeyard will also help you adjust for any changes in management practices, etc.
 
If I'm reading the botanical sites correctly, this species reaches maturity in about 15 years and has a life expectancy of about 25 year.  (You should check those values at a nursery, though.  I'm not particularly confident in that aspect of my research.)
 
Now, plot your net per-colony production against the years that you've been growing the trees.  Extrapolate out for 5 more years to show the probable trend up to maturity but then level it out.
 
Now create a second line on your graph showing the same trend but starting this year.  Subtract the difference each year between the two lines.  This is your expected loss of value.  In a spreadsheet, calculate the Net Present Value of the difference over time to get your expected total loss in 2009 equivalents.
 
The one factor that we haven't factored in yet is the incremental value of the lightness that it brings to your honey.  If you really think it's a factor, you'll need yet more information about the relative prices of lighter honey and the degree of lightening that you get in your crop.  Multiply the price changes by the volume changes to get a per-year differential and repeat your trend charting.
 
Make sure that everything is denominated in 2009 dollars (since those are the dollars that you'll be paid in).
 
One last thought.  Your comment about honey contamination is interesting but I'm confused by your wording.  I'm not sure how you could claim injury by "inert residues" - they are, by definition, inert.  Regardless, I'd think you could get a good first cut at an analysis of your contamination risk by carefully reading the MSDSs for the spray.  That may point you to additional analysis of the component chemicals but all of them should have some indicator of known risk factors to honeybees.  If there are no risk factors, then you have little to worry about.  Until you have some indicator that there might be a credible risk to your customers or your bees, I'm not sure how you could ask for reimbursement of the lab analysis.
 
Hope at least some of that helps.  Remember that free advice is usually worth exactly what you paid for it.
 
Mike Rossander


      

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