> Canada's unofficial tracks with the unoffical reports of 50% winter
> kill in the US that did not materialize. Amazing how it is always
> 50%.

We all know that any number ending in "0" has a 90% chance of being a
SWAG, and a round number like 1/2 or 1/3 can be very approximate in
colloquial usage..

As already discussed, there are big problems making these estimates, and
bigger problems can stem from believing them.

Not everyone is looking at the same thing or thinking the same way.
Motivations and biases vary.

There are means and there are averages, and either can be taken on the
loss numbers of entire bee operations without regard to numbers of
colonies in each, or on colony numbers without regard to individual
beekeeper performance.

What is a loss, and when is it counted?  Are dinks surviving in April
counted along with strong hives as surviving, or do we wait until
mid-May and count only the viable hives that do not need boosting as
survivors?

What are the basis numbers?  Do we use September counts, or wait until
the end of October when a shrinkage of several percent may have occurred?

What do beekeeper put into winter and what do they count?  Many
commercial beekeepers do a fall check in September when feeding and wrap
everything that seems to have enough bees.  Other go through every hive
and double up or shake out any questionable hives.

Then there is the question of whether there is any prospect of
government compensation money.  That factor alone can double fall counts
or winter losses.

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