Randy
 
I agree that in closely managed operations, you're going to see more stability.  But I was actually talking  about our experience with both varroa and with tracheal mites in research, as well as closely managed, and poorly managed operations.  Bottom line, if the beekeeper isn't keeping mite level 'pretty damn low', they can go up and down exponentially very fast, as you commented in an earlier message.

So, I'd argue that your 'pretty damn low' threshold  is not the magic number thresholds used by many, and that you're actually keeping your operation at the low end of the mite distribution curve - so you're not a representative test case.

We've built bookkeeping population models for both mites, and the models  indicate that uncontrolled mite numbers can lead to roller coaster infestations and sudden collapses - but I think that's what you said.



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