>
>  First, progress will likely come on the back of those stains that today
> show some promise such as MH, VSH or Russians.


The answer may come from MH, VSH, Russians *or *something else. But I don't
think the answer will be additive. Meaning, if I cross a mite resistant MH
with a mite resistant Russian, it's not likely that I'll get a super mite
resistant bee. In fact, the odds favor a greater possibility that I'll lose
all mite resistant tenancies.

So, which one will be the answer? One is likely to work out, and the rest
are likely to fall to the wayside. At this point in the game, I can either
a) gamble, pick one, and hope it evolves into the answer, b) try all of
them, hope the best one proves itself and the losers don't contribute too
much to the breeding pool, diluting the best one's genetics, or c) let
others try it out, wait and see.

I wish there was a better choice. But right now, I don't see much of a
difference between the three, except a and b involves me buying queens. C
is cheaper. The past 10 years has shown me that the odds are I'll be
waiting for someone else to develop a better bee anyway.


> Second, if there is some single valuable mutation that would be a
> significant step forwards added to what we have today that mutation can
> happen anyplace.  If anyone sees some hive that seems to perform
> exceptionally with regard to mites getting some of that genetics into the
> hands of people like Latshaw who has massive numbers of hives and who is in
> the business of testing resistance is important.


Perhaps. I can't rule that out. But my understanding is that mutation is
rare. Maybe one colony over the course of 10 years (at least state side)
mutates the the point where it's a meaningful change. With 2.64 million
managed colonies in the states (as of 2013), if we assume all of them
requeen themselves annually, a hobby beekeeper with 20 hives has a 1 in
1,320,000 chance, or a 0.00007% chance, of acquiring that mutation.
Possible, no doubt. But the odds of winning a jackpot in the Pick 5 lottery
is roughly 1 in 740,000.

But assuming everyone did monitor, and a hobby operation got the mutation,
and they recognized they have a possible mutation, is anyone set up to test
it (like Latshaw)? Or if a hobby operator called up a major breeder and
told them they had the "mite cure" would it just be observed as white
noise?

Don't get me wrong, I very much wish I could be part of the solution. And
I'd like to agree that you're either part of the problem, or part of the
solution. But at this point in the game, if you have less than 1,000
colonies, I don't see how you can make any meaningful contribution toward a
greater end, other than to monitor your mites, keep healthy colonies and
mite counts down with treatments and prevent an over zealous breeding of
mites (and with it more viruses and diseases that they spread) that would
prevent finding a solution quicker.

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