> Should success be seen as how many cells actually completed the supercedure or did the the hive stay strong and overwintered.

Exactly. Nobody has offered any evidence that there is a tangible benefit that outweighs the cost.



????Seems to me that at that point your trying to prove the impossible,  and completely muddle the information with variables we don't even remotely have figured out.


Small steps, would be the key would they not?  How often do we supercede a queen with one we know is better?  The answer is never,  as each and every queen has pretty well been a Forest Gump special so far.  As to winter,  fall forage, temp swings, nosema,  mite levels, the list is endless.  Adding variables to the formula just mitigates everything.

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