There is plenty of hard data on the huge numbers of mites that get carried in from elsewhere.  It is not uncommon for 500-1000 mites to immigrate in late summer and fall.  

First,  Not saying your wrong,  just that I am not convinced yet!.  I know you more than about anybody else has been working on making the math work for both bee populations and mites,  And just as you know there are a lot of moving pieces.   Its fairly easy to move numbers around to match the end result,  but it doesn't always mean you have the right variables. Decades of problem solving has shown me that.


Lets take your number of 1000 immigrant mites,  just at initial thought,  seems like a lot.  In a good hive with 10,000 foragers,  your saying 1 in 10 will track a mite from somewhere else in a given 2 week time period  That seems like a awful to me.

Lets say your load was 3 mites per 100 (phoretics only for the moment) with 30,000 bees that’s 900 mites,  So lets say that hive crashes.  The number of phoretics will climb quickly as they hatch and no new larva to infect,  but never reach zero....  but lets say it jumps to 25%  that is now 7500 mites ready to jump ship  (never seen it that bad on phoretics)  your saying that ALL of these will successfully move to other hives.


Remember that math assumed the hive didn't dwindle at all....  I suspect that final number of mites as the ship sinks is closer to not more than 1500 per hive...  remember these would have to be mature phoretic mites capable of sensing robbing bees from other hives.

It also requires robbing bees.  Something I see little of until the hive is so far gone that there is no way there are that many mites ready to bail.


In the end,  I do 100% contend,  it’s a moot point.  Find the mites,  and the high count hives and handle them!

The data clearly shows though  that the message and success is not there.  To many hives with too high counts,  no matter how you do any of the math or how they got there.


I had a conversation today with a Lady who ordered 20 packages.  She lost 7 last fall  because "the swarmed off"  no amount of discussion would lead her to mites.  They swarmed......

I suggested a beekeeping class,  and sold her bees. What more can I do?



Charles

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