US is playing catchup and weather computers are less powerful, but with our  
disfunctional Congress I wasn't able to find out if the money was  
allocated in this year's budget as promised.

Hi there

Cornell University has an excellent weather department which I visited years ago. They explained that they use multiple models, and form a prediction based on the combination of these. 

However, the more complex a system, the more difficult to model reliably. A crashing vehicle in a room will be more predictable than one on a freeway. Climate will be more predictable than day to day weather.

But none of these is as complex as an ecosystem, which is the sum of all the species living in, which is affected by the weather, climate, anthropological influences, geophysical factors, etc. 

Like the old zen saying, a river is not the same river twice. To which most people add: not even once.

PLB

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