From: Peter L Borst <[log in to unmask]>

>The hive faces the same situation. They don't know how long a given amount of honey will last, so it would be a mistake to stop foraging for any reason other than completely running out of room to store honey. I submit that this is what they do, and this is the strategy that has evolved over time.

...sounds about right to me...but I think there is more to it.  A few things worth remembering:

1.  It does seem established that the smell of empty comb is in fact a pheromone in the colony, and that bees react and behave based upon the presence or absence of empty comb.  Allen's comments seem to indicate that he feels this is conditional (whether the bees are occupying the comb or not...but I don't think this has been established).  In nature, the amount of empty comb tends to be limited by the size of the cavity initially chosen by the bees (see below).  The smell of empty comb seems to affect _at least_ hoarding and defensive behavior.

2.  There is so much about managed colonies that is different from unmanaged ones that you can't look at behavior in one set of circumstances and assume it is the same in others.  Here, I think volume is a big issue.  We know from the excellent work done by Tom Seeley on swarming that bees will tend to choose a cavity about the size of a 10 frame deep box for their colony.  ....new beekeepers are advised to house their new package of bees in a cavity about this size as well.

Assume that a swarm establishes in a tree cavity about this size (deep box).  ...how likely is it that this cavity will get bigger while the bees are occupying it (not very)?  Given that the bees will start drawing comb from the top of the cavity and fill from the top down (honey and brood), how likely is it that there will be empty comb or "damaged comb that needs repair" (foundation) found above the cluster (not very)?

This is the real trick that beekeepers play on the bees.  We get them established in a box of the size they would choose, then we expand and harvest it so it can't be filled to the point of swarming.  We place foundation or empty comb above the established cluster creating a situation that the bees feel compelled to fix (as it would represent a damaged nest in nature).

The point is, why would the bees need a mechanism to measure how much honey is in the hive if they have a mechanism to choose an appropriate sized cavity to begin with?  We don't weigh each jar of honey, as we know how much each jar holds....if we were filling balloons with honey (or if someone magically made the jar bigger while we were filling the jar) we would want to weigh each one.

The strategy that seems to have evolved over time is that bees occupy a relatively small cavity, build up to fill the cavity early enough in the season to swarm (at least once).  This works because they tend to choose cavities of a size that makes this work.

Now, why do beekeepers (who have been expanding colonies and trying to prevent swarming all season) have late swarms that have no chance of survival?

deknow

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