>>No treatment should mean just that - nothing.  It also
>>probably means dead bees!

>Thats a scare tactic.

That kind of comment is not helpful.  Nobody wants to scare anyone,
but all things being equal, it is a simple statement of fact.

For those who are not knowledgeable -- and also lucky IMO -- that is
the oft-proven result, if not immediately, in the fullness of time.

There are exceptions, and very notable ones, as you know, but they
are not the rule, and most that I know of are not keeping many bees.

Again there are exceptions, but most have not kept bees treatment-free
long enough to provide much confidence in their track record.

The exceptions include people like yourself, those who are able to
keep Primorsky stock under the proper conditions, some queen
breeders, and quite a number of small hobbyists.  Weavers claim their
bees can thrive without routine treatments, and I believe them.  Bees
in the South, interbred with AHB seem to be quite robust, too.

Anyone intending to keep bees needs to know the probabilities, and
be prepared to recognize and mitigate the risks.  The risk of total loss is
very real.

Statistics predict that for matters like bee survival in the face of various
diseases and pests, there are probabilities. 

It seems that people do not understand probabilities and if they win the
lottery this time and their bees do not die for a year -- or even a number
of years -- they feel righteous and entitled to preach and disregard the
strong evidence that their experience is more probably luck than anything.

If the odds are ten to one, one person is going to win and probably not
realize the role of chance.

Of course, success does not feel like luck, but it is entirely predicable
and merely attributable to the probabilities -- as are the losses others suffer.

Admittedly, there are existential arguments that can be made with this
apparent fact.

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