> For numbers [of varroa mites] in a hive to 
> quadruple you would need 100% of the 
> mites from 4 neighboring hives to 
> successfully migrate.

I have not read anything from Kelley's yet, but I think I understand the
issue.

The hives being robbed out are the seriously infested "nuisance beekeeping"
hives, which is why they are so weak, they can be robbed out so easily.  So
all things are not equal, all hives are not equally infested in fall, and
robbing out even a single such hive can cause a dramatic upswing in the
numbers of mites that re-infest a hive with a low mite count and an adequate
bee population.  The healthiest hives will do the most robbing, and
therefore, might have the highest Thanksgiving mite counts.

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