>I am confused about the take-home messages regarding USA winter bee hive
survival as calculated by the BeeInformed survey.  Maybe others on the list
are too,

Christina, I agree with all your points.  In addition, the math used to
calculate winter losses is problematic for those who make increase at the
end of March (I've gone over the calculation methods with the authors).
 When I calculate my own winter losses using their formula, I arrive at a
higher number than if I calculate it in a manner that makes more sense to
me.

I also question putting too much faith determining the causes of colony
mortality based upon "in your opinion."  For example, some of the
inspectors  who graded colonies in almonds reported to me that some hives
contained spider webs.  Since spiders are not normally active during winter
(perhaps they are in southern states), this observation suggests that those
colonies may have already been dead in fall.  But in a self-reported
survey, they would likely have been recorded as alive at that time, or the
beekeeper would not likely have hauled what he knew were deadouts all the
way across the country.

  I am not criticizing the survey--it is certainly better than nothing, but
to me, it would be more informative to independently and carefully assess
colony strength for a subset of representative operations from various
parts of the country.
-- 
Randy Oliver
Grass Valley, CA
www.ScientificBeekeeping.com

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