<Catherine said: Perhaps we should try not to rock the
atmospheric boat, and prepare for the effects of change no matter what
its origin.>
I agree fully with Catherine; this was the reason for my original post.
I did not intend to kick off a debate about the definition of weather
versus climate, nor the causes of climate and weather changes, or even whether
in the long term we are truly in a period of Global Warming.
However, I do have access to the input and data of one of the best
equipped climate research groups in the world at my University, and they in turn
have access to the data from the most advanced satellites, one
specifically designed to study climate.
In MT, the last 10 years have had, as I said, earlier springs, with at
least one record setting high temp day each of those 10 years. The climate
group in the Forestry School at the UM doesn't expect that to change any time
soon.
I intended my post to reflect information that I consider to be the 'best
available' to beekeepers in the NW of the US. In other words, assuming the
climate researchers are right, the changes we see may be with us for some
time, so expect to have to adjust your spring management timing accordingl
y. Remember, in this part of the US, many beekeeping operations are
migratory, following the bloom.
Also, since the research group at UM is in the Forestry school, their
emphasis has to do with wood products - one sets up for long term management
when planting trees, you want to minimize mistakes. In other words, they've
practical reasons for looking at climate, this isn't just a basic science
project to them.
Whether we are seeing a short term change of a decade or two that may
reverse (my parents were farming during the dust bowl years) , or whether we
are in a longer term change - I don't know. I do think my colleagues have
sufficient data to predict the likelihood of the weather changing back in
the NW of the US in the short term. They're not expecting it to change back
any time soon.
Personally, I've adjusted our bee research to plan for earlier springs (on
whole) - any given year can be an exception.
Jerry
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