> The numbers will be equal - but the argument is flawed. 

Exactly. But all the headlines say the losses are greater, when in fact they would be the same, taking this example. But my point is: culling in the fall does reduce winter loss. 

But why don't folks do it? I think it is because they are hoping for a mild winter where their losses would be low. In which case, culling fewer in the fall would result in more colonies in spring. 

In the old days, beekeepers expected to divide their colonies in spring, to reduce swarming and bring up the numbers. Now, many are scrambling to have as many strong hives as they can for pollination, which increases the impetus to gamble.

PLB

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